The Official Blog of Matthew L. Adler

The Official Blog of Matthew L. Adler

Posts Tagged ‘economy’

Too Big to Fail

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

I just read the excerpt of Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book Too Big to Fail in this month’s Vanity Fair.  I can’t wait to read the entire book.  Sorkin seems to have written one of the great works of investigative journalism. While reading, I had to keep reminding myself that this isn’t historical fiction and these events actually took place.  It was fascinating to read the inside story of how giants such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were led to the brink only to be pulled back primarily by government intervention.

The panic and potential domino effect that many believed was happening during the week following the collapse of Lehman Brothers was perfectly encapsulated by Sorkin.  A perfect example of this fear is seen in a section about then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson; “The entire economy, he said, was on the verge of collapsing. Paulson was no longer worried about just investment banks; he was worried about General Electric, the world’s largest company and an icon of American innovation. Jeffrey Immelt, G.E.’s C.E.O., had told him that the conglomerate’s commercial paper, used to fund its day-to-day operations, could stop rolling. Paulson had also heard murmurs that JPMorgan Chase had stopped lending to Citigroup; that Bank of America had stopped making loans to McDonald’s franchisees; that Treasury bills were trading for less than 1 percent interest, as if they were no better than cash, as if the full faith of the government had suddenly become meaningless.”

I was immediately drawn to this book because I am fascinated by the proposterous notion of “too big to fail” and I oppose the entire concept. As a capitalist, I believe companies should succeed (or fail) based on their own merits. Yet as a progressive, I understand the need for regulation to protect the entire society from a company either gaining a monopoly or becoming so expansive that their failure would cause irreparable harm to the entire society.

Ironically, the same people who demanded banking reform with little regulation were forced to ask for government handouts. Striking the balance between oversight and an independent private sector isn’t easy. Clearly, the balance got out of control in the last decade. Hopefully, we have not lost momentum on banking reform with the Dow hovering around 10,000 and over a year removed from the height of the crisis. We have to find a new balance, one where we encourage innovation and incentivize success, but we also demand oversight, transparency and protection from any one company becoming so large that their failure would begin a ripple effect that could bring down our entire economy.

Miami Responsible for the Economy?

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

On Vanity Fair’s web site Bruce Feirstein is counting down his list of the 100 people, companies, institutions, and vices most responsible for the economic mess. Each day he adds five new culprits to the list of villains. I am embarrassed to inform you that yesterday’s post include number 67. Miami and Las Vegas.

I suppose those of us who live in either of these communities should not be surprised. We witnessed all the signs of a historic housing bubble. I remember looking out my window and literally counting dozens of cranes. I personally know many people that were flipping condos.

For the past 10 years I have been a renter. Countless times over that period of time I have been asked “why is someone in real estate throwing away money by renting”. I politely tried to explain that I was at a transient point in life and it was much cheaper on a monthly basis to rent than to buy. In this latest cycle there was a belief that real estate values only went in one direction. I think most of my contemporaries believed you couldn’t lose money by owning a home. As we all know to well now, this opinion was significantly misguided.

I did not predict this housing crash but I was not surprised by it. It has been a tragedy for Miami, the Country and World. The housing bubble was the trigger that began this recession. In my business, commercial real estate occupancies, financing and values in many cases have been effected by the housing crisis.

I certainly can not disagree with Mr. Feirstein. Unfortunately, Miami was ground zero for some of the most egregious exuberances of the housing bubble. However, although Las Vegas and Miami led the charge, similar excess occurred in many markets in this Country and around the World. It is just sad to see my community singled out, as deserving as it may be.

Has Residential Bottomed?

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

I am totally perplexed by the housing market these days. I find myself asking questions such as: Are prices still declining? Are inventories declining? When will values begin to rise? In essence: have we bottomed?

My suspicion is, despite popular demand, there is not a simple answer. I still think there are major discrepancies between different sectors of the market. Single-family homes inventories are declining but condominiums may not be. Luxury home values may decline more while the rest of the market may have leveled. There continues to be a huge difference between different areas. Mature markets will continue to behave more consistently than markets with hyper growth.

There are certainly some positive statistics, most notably sales of new homes rose nearly 10 percent in July. However, there is some conflicting data regarding the accuracy of those numbers. In addition, foreclosures have continued to rise, up nearly 7 percent in July. So again, what does this all mean?

Low interest rates and tax incentives to first-time homebuyers have helped fuel a limited recovery. I wouldn’t crack open the champagne bottles yet. We may be close to the bottom but a climb seems far off.

In general, I believe buying a home is a qualitative not quantitative decision - I think this is even truer today. In this market, one should not buy a home simply because they perceive a market low. You can still rent for a huge discount relative to a purchase. In addition, a purchase has significant transaction cost on both the acquisition and disposition.

Typically a good rule of thumb is if you know you will be in a home for less than 3 years, rent. If you will be somewhere over 3 years, buy. I would be more conservative today. The new rule: one should be confident they will be somewhere for more than 5 years before purchasing.

Yes, there seemingly are buying opportunities in the market. Yet, you should still be cautious.

The train is far from leaving the station.

Is Commercial Real Estate Next?

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009

The cliché I hear most often these days is that “commercial real estate is next.” I assume it’s being used to make a direct comparison to the distress in residential markets. I just don’t see a lot of similarities between the current residential and commercial markets, however.

Residential real estate is largely the cause for our international economic crisis commercial real estate is merely a symptom. Over-building, investor speculation and insane lending were the catalysts for a global recession, the likes of which the world has never seen.

Yes, commercial real estate owners face significant challenges. The triple threat of cap-rate deflation, maturity defaults and tenant performance are daunting. However, commercial real estate doesn’t have close to the same absorption issues residential is facing. We just didn’t see excessive speculative development in the last 20 years.

In addition, although lenders got carried away in commercial, we are not talking about negatively amortizing 100% loan-to-value (LTV). At its worst, commercial lenders were originating debt with interest only at 80% LTV. However, those loans still had debt service coverage ratios. The threat in commercial real estate, by in large, is with maturity defaults; an inability to replace debt at the end of the term. This is far different from the 50% or worse write-downs we are seeing with some residential projects.

This is going to be a challenging time. Commercial properties will continue to lose occupancy and experience lower market rents. Retail and Class A offices will certainly be the hardest hit. Although the distress in commercial real estate will be painful, it will be nothing like the disaster we have seen in residential.

This economy is challenging enough and simplifying conditions to cute clichés may serve the needs of the commentators and pundits, but doesn’t serve the public good. No, commercial real estate is not immune from the economy, but it certainly isn’t next.

Why the Progressive Capitalist?

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

I certainly have a lot to say when it comes to the intersection of business and politics. In this space I will share with you my take on the happenings affecting South Florida, the country and the world. I look forward to hearing your feedback as well.

So…why the Progressive Capitalist?

Somehow, we have lost the “middle” in this country. It seems in our current economic crisis, you are either a free market investment banker who does not believe in regulation or a socialist. I promise I am neither. I also believe that the vast majority of Americans are neither as well.

If America is going to begin its economic recovery, our business community needs to accept that much needed regulation is approaching. They also need to recognize that investment products were created and securitized that were not understood or rated appropriately. Finally, the term “too big to fail” should be stricken from the lexicon. The public needs to welcome change.

Additionally, if we are going to return to economic growth, liberals need to recognize all bankers are not bad. Bankers, analysts and traders are needed to create products that will return liquidity to the system. Even more difficult to accept is that, eventually, successful bankers will need to be compensated generously for their efforts.

This country was built on entrepreneurial business. We need to stop trying to determine blame for our economic condition and work to optimize our recovery. Unfettered capitalism is as unrealistic an economic system as socialism. Common sense solutions will improve our capitalist society and better position us for the future.