The Official Blog of Matthew L. Adler

The Official Blog of Matthew L. Adler

residential real estate

Miami Responsible for the Economy?

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

On Vanity Fair’s web site Bruce Feirstein is counting down his list of the 100 people, companies, institutions, and vices most responsible for the economic mess. Each day he adds five new culprits to the list of villains. I am embarrassed to inform you that yesterday’s post include number 67. Miami and Las Vegas.

I suppose those of us who live in either of these communities should not be surprised. We witnessed all the signs of a historic housing bubble. I remember looking out my window and literally counting dozens of cranes. I personally know many people that were flipping condos.

For the past 10 years I have been a renter. Countless times over that period of time I have been asked “why is someone in real estate throwing away money by renting”. I politely tried to explain that I was at a transient point in life and it was much cheaper on a monthly basis to rent than to buy. In this latest cycle there was a belief that real estate values only went in one direction. I think most of my contemporaries believed you couldn’t lose money by owning a home. As we all know to well now, this opinion was significantly misguided.

I did not predict this housing crash but I was not surprised by it. It has been a tragedy for Miami, the Country and World. The housing bubble was the trigger that began this recession. In my business, commercial real estate occupancies, financing and values in many cases have been effected by the housing crisis.

I certainly can not disagree with Mr. Feirstein. Unfortunately, Miami was ground zero for some of the most egregious exuberances of the housing bubble. However, although Las Vegas and Miami led the charge, similar excess occurred in many markets in this Country and around the World. It is just sad to see my community singled out, as deserving as it may be.

Has Residential Bottomed?

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

I am totally perplexed by the housing market these days. I find myself asking questions such as: Are prices still declining? Are inventories declining? When will values begin to rise? In essence: have we bottomed?

My suspicion is, despite popular demand, there is not a simple answer. I still think there are major discrepancies between different sectors of the market. Single-family homes inventories are declining but condominiums may not be. Luxury home values may decline more while the rest of the market may have leveled. There continues to be a huge difference between different areas. Mature markets will continue to behave more consistently than markets with hyper growth.

There are certainly some positive statistics, most notably sales of new homes rose nearly 10 percent in July. However, there is some conflicting data regarding the accuracy of those numbers. In addition, foreclosures have continued to rise, up nearly 7 percent in July. So again, what does this all mean?

Low interest rates and tax incentives to first-time homebuyers have helped fuel a limited recovery. I wouldn’t crack open the champagne bottles yet. We may be close to the bottom but a climb seems far off.

In general, I believe buying a home is a qualitative not quantitative decision – I think this is even truer today. In this market, one should not buy a home simply because they perceive a market low. You can still rent for a huge discount relative to a purchase. In addition, a purchase has significant transaction cost on both the acquisition and disposition.

Typically a good rule of thumb is if you know you will be in a home for less than 3 years, rent. If you will be somewhere over 3 years, buy. I would be more conservative today. The new rule: one should be confident they will be somewhere for more than 5 years before purchasing.

Yes, there seemingly are buying opportunities in the market. Yet, you should still be cautious.

The train is far from leaving the station.